Time to be very careful

  • Posts: 1199

Replied by FrankN on topic Our Recovery - Too Optimistic

Well said. I am also rather worried especially when interest rates start to rise.
3 years 1 month ago #1

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 217

Replied by Breakinger on topic Our Recovery - Too Optimistic

I completely agree, Frugalfran. The outcome of the election always seems to play a huge part in the market and this probably isn't a good time to change things. It seems like to a lot of people that growth has come back, but I still don't think that we are where we should be. Everything is still too delicate in my opinion.
3 years 1 month ago #2

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 364

Replied by FrugalFran on topic Our Recovery - Too Optimistic

Interesting thoughts, Admin - thanks for posting this. My plan is to stay relatively conservative until after the election. I think the outcome in November is going to have a big impact on the market and I think it's going to take about six months into the new president's term to see what that impact is going to be.
3 years 1 month ago #3

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Finance Globe
  • Finance Globe's Avatar Topic Author
  • Offline
  • Administrator
  • Administrator
  • Posts: 572

Replied by Finance Globe on topic Our Recovery - Too Optimistic

I am writing this with strong thoughts on the recent surge in equity prices, that some will see are looking very bubbly. The main driver of this 8 year bull has been low rates, and corporate buybacks. The headlines are about optimism that growth is coming back, however I want to consider it the other way, that growth was at it's peak around July 2014 (see http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth), and the earnings recession still has time to go due to the reckless environment we're in with high stocks prices, low and even negative growth.

The only thing that I see is that the indices are way overpriced and too expensive. Growth has been negative, while prices are now at all time highs (http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings-growth) They say don't fight the Fed, and I agree, however this will come to and end and it won't be pretty when it does - extreme caution is warranted here to say the very least. Individual names on the other hand are always worth a look.

Please readers, be careful and don't get greedy.
Last edit: 3 years 1 month ago by Finance Globe.
3 years 1 month ago #4

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 1199

Replied by FrankN on topic Once Again

I think its a sign you should monitor. I do not think you should make your investing decision on it alone, but along with other indicators, it can be meaningful.
3 years 4 months ago #5

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 261

Replied by Moneyes on topic Once Again

Do you think the amount of stock ownership should really come into play when determining which stocks you should invest in?
As for the original point of the thread........every day is a day when you should be careful in this business. It can be very fickle when you least expect it.
3 years 4 months ago #6

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 1199

Replied by FrankN on topic Once Again

Very interesting article, thank you for sharing.
3 years 5 months ago #7

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Finance Globe
  • Finance Globe's Avatar Topic Author
  • Offline
  • Administrator
  • Administrator
  • Posts: 572

Replied by Finance Globe on topic Once Again

I know it is typical behavior for small investors to buy at the top of markets, and get scared and sell near the lows. A record low of about 50% of households are invested in stocks. It's hard to imagine these guys driving assets so much higher, then telling you why you should buy it from them. A neat little package that should be regarded as very risky at this point. Buy low, sell high!
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2016/04/22/American-Stock-Ownership-Slides-Back-Record-Low
Last edit: 3 years 5 months ago by Finance Globe.
3 years 5 months ago #8

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 1199

Replied by FrankN on topic Once Again

I think it is very important to do your own research and make sure you really understand what kind of investments you are getting into. I am not predicting one way or the other, but sometimes people let others do their investing for them and do not realize what risk they are or are not taking.
3 years 5 months ago #9

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Finance Globe
  • Finance Globe's Avatar Topic Author
  • Offline
  • Administrator
  • Administrator
  • Posts: 572

Replied by Finance Globe on topic Once Again

All of the hype in the markets makes me want to post this as a dire warning. The S&P 500 sits at 2104 as I type this - and could go higher... However, with a very overpriced market, we are at nosebleed levels due to the low interest rates / savings and borrowing rates caused by the FED 7 years ago. P/E for the broad indexes are overpriced in an uncertain world economy that in my opinion, will get very shaky within the next year or two.

Be careful not to follow the advice of others, and take charge of your own investing strategy.
3 years 5 months ago #10

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 1199

Replied by FrankN on topic U.S. Economic Growth Cools in Third Quarter

Gross domestic product advanced at a 1.5% seasonally and inflation adjusted annual rate in the third quarter. The July-through-September reading marks a sharp deceleration from the second quarter, when the economy expanded at a 3.9% rate. This is not unusual, but appears the US market is slowing its growth. It will be interesting to see if the Fed decides to raise rates and what will happen through the end of the year.
3 years 11 months ago #11

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 1199

Replied by FrankN on topic Black Monday

I would agree! This market does appear to be very superstitious (and short sided).
3 years 11 months ago #12

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 1265

Replied by Wanderer on topic Black Monday

Not on my mind! Do people really live all that superstitious nonsense :) If they do, they are already at a disadvantage!
3 years 11 months ago #13

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 1199

Replied by FrankN on topic Black Monday

Today is the anniversary of Black Monday (1987) with the DJIA falling over 22%. I know it is on everyone's minds, but I do not think another fall like that will happen. I am interested to see how this week's earnings releases will affect the market.
3 years 11 months ago #14

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 1199

Replied by FrankN on topic Re: Time to be very careful

I am very interested to see how much the Democratic debate will talk about the economy and/or stock market. I don't imagine a lot of buzz, but it has the potential to affect the US markets a bit.
4 years 1 day ago #15

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.